POLL-China’s January yuan loans hit record high, c.bank to slow credit growth in 2021
Reuters: // realtime / verb = Open / url = cpurl: //apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls? RIC = CNMSM2% 3DECI money supply survey data
Reuters: // realtime / verb = Open / url = cpurl: //apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls? RIC = CNNYL% 3DECI survey data on new loans
January New Loans Amount To 3.5 Trillion Yuan From 1.26 Trillion Yuan In December
Money supply growth in January at 10% year-on-year against 10.1% in December
Jan TSF seen at 4.45 trillion yuan vs. 1.72 trillion yuan in January
Loans, money supply data from February 10 to 15
BEIJING, February 8 (Reuters) – China’s new bank loans are expected to increase to a record in January on a a seasonal boost, according to a Reuters poll, while credit growth could be constrained by some marginal tightening of monetary policy the central bank concentrates on risk prevention.
Chinese banks tend to grant loans early in the year to get better quality customers and gain market share.
Chinese banks are estimated to have issued 3.5 trillion yuan ($ 542.06 billion) in new net loans in yuan last month, up from 1.26 billion yuan in December, according to the median estimate of a survey. from Reuters to 27 economists.
The loan tally would be the highest according to Reuters records, exceeding the 3.34 trillion yuan seen in January 2020.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has put in place a series of measures since early 2020 to support the economy affected by the virus. But it has adopted a more stable position in recent months and has kept its benchmark key rate, the prime lending rate, unchanged since May.
Market rates began to rise recently as the PBOC refrained from making its usual cash injections to meet strong demand for cash ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, prompting growing concerns about the tightening. cash. earlier than expected.
Monetary policy will continue to support the economy, but at the same time, the central bank will monitor risks, PBOC Governor Yi Gang said last month.
January Many commercial banks in major cities have also sharply slowed down the issuance of home loans and mortgages amid tight credit quotas, following strict loan ceilings instituted by the central bank to contain the flow of funds. in the real estate sector.
The growth of the broad money supply M2 in January was 10%, against 10.1% the previous month.
Annual yuan loans are expected to rise 12.7% for January, a notch below December’s 12.8%.
Total social financing (TSF), a general measure of credit and liquidity, is expected to jump to 4.4 trillion yuan from 1.72 trillion yuan in December.
“Looking ahead, given the uncertainties associated with the pandemic and the seasonal strong demand for liquidity, we expect the PBOC to provide sufficient liquidity ahead of the Chinese New Year through various liquidity facilities,” economists at UBS said.
They also predict that policy normalization will resume after March, as cases of COVID-19 in China are likely to be contained, the country’s growth gains ground and the global pandemic situation becomes more visible.
($ 1 = 6.4569 yuan Chinese renminbi)
(Reporting by Lusha Zhang and Ryan Woo; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)
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